Holiday flu season outlook
Flu season activity has slowed but remains very high
This time last year, I was bracing for the impending omicron wave. Although vaccines had been widely available for most of a year, the wave turned out to be the worst yet, with a peak of 160,000 hospitalizations. While the pandemic has improved in the current year, there are a lot of viruses circulating this holiday season, making it the third consecutive year with unusual disease activity.
Programming note: I will not be writing next week. I’m wishing you a safe and healthy holiday season!
Respiratory diseases
Influenza-like illness (ILI) activity slowed slightly during the week ending December 10, but most of the country is still in the middle of the worst flu season in years. (ILI includes both influenza and other infections that cause fever, cough, or sore throat.)
Around 6.9% of visits to the doctor were for ILI, an improvement from 7.3% the week prior. As in previous weeks, children were the most heavily affected, especially kids 4 and under.
It’s possible for ILI activity to pick up again after a brief respite, as it did during the 2018-2019 and 2019-2020 seasons, but for now we are headed in the right direction
Most of the country (48 jurisdictions) is reporting high or very high levels of ILI activity. I see modest improvements in the southeastern and Appalachian regions where the flu season started especially early. Still, in a normal year, the flu activity in these regions would be considered quite high, so it’s not time to relax.
The number of Covid-19 hospitalizations has been steadily increasing, with over 40,000 people hospitalized on December 17, an increase from 28,000 in mid-November. While this is an improvement from the 68,000 hospitalizations on the same day last year, the healthcare system is still facing strain due to the added burden of influenza patients. Many of these hospitalizations are in people ages 70+, so please be mindful to protect older adults during holiday gatherings.
Also, be sure to take advantage of the resumption of the government program that sends free Covid-19 tests through the mail. It’s super simple to order, but don’t wait because supplies do run out.
RSV activity continues to decline, after one of the worst RSV seasons in memory. The improvements are evident in every region of the United States. This slowing is likely a welcome relief for the parents of infants and young children, who were heavily impacted by the severe RSV season. Still, please continue to be vigilant in keeping kids safe through the rest of this cold and flu season.
The seasonal, non-Covid-19 coronaviruses may be next in line to give us a hard time, based on data from CDC, Biofire, and Georgia. If it weren’t so awful, I would almost be impressed at how thoroughly we seem to be cycling through the respiratory viruses that collectively comprise cold and flu season.
There are seven known human coronaviruses, three of which cause severe illness: Covid-19, SARS, and MERS. The other four mostly cause mild, cold-like symptoms and circulate regularly. It’s these mild, seasonal coronaviruses that are on the rise. As with the other respiratory viruses, you can reduce your risk of getting a seasonal coronavirus by wearing a high-quality mask while in crowded, indoor places, improving ventilation, and practicing proper hand hygiene.
Finally, there is growing evidence that the United States may be experiencing an increase in group A streptococcus (GAS), a bacterial infection that most people know as the cause of strep throat. While strep throat is a mild illness, GAS can sometimes cause more severe, invasive disease. Multiple European countries have reported an increase in these invasive cases, and now so has Minnesota and Colorado. Although invasive GAS is rare, swift diagnosis and treatment is crucial, so I’m highlighting it here for your awareness. Symptoms vary depending on where the infection is in the body—I found this UKHSA summary most helpful, of the ones I reviewed.
Stomach bugs
This entry is the same as last week. I’m including it again for new readers. If you know of any good data sources for GI illness, please send me an email!
Although surveillance for the pathogens that cause vomiting and diarrhea is not as robust as I would like, norovirus (the classic “stomach bug”) is on the rise. This is most evident in the midwestern region of the country, where the percentage of tests that are positive for norovirus is at 14%, up from 4-8% over the summer months.
More on preventing the stomach bug: Norovirus spreads very easily between people through the “fecal-oral” route. To stop it from spreading, wash your hands thoroughly after using the bathroom and before eating or preparing food. I also use hand sanitizer while I’m in public like after I use self-checkout at the grocery store or when I use public transportation, but you should know that hand sanitizer is not as effective against norovirus as hand washing. Be sure to wash your hands properly when you get home. Most importantly, stay home if you have vomiting or diarrhea.
If someone in your household gets norovirus, you can reduce the chance it will spread by keeping them out of the kitchen and disinfecting contaminated (read: bathroom) and shared surfaces. Also regard laundry like bedsheets, clothes and towels as contaminated. Use gloves when handling the items and wash them thoroughly with hot water on the longest cleaning cycle.
Food recalls
The following foods are being recalled because they are contaminated with bacteria that causes food poisoning. Please check your cupboards and throw out any of these items:
New this week:
Whole Nutrition Infant Formula, Milk Based Powder with Iron for 0-12 months (more info)
Previously reported:
Favorina branded Advent Calendar sold at Lidl (more info)
James Farm frozen raspberries sold through Restaurant Depot/Jetro (more info)
Kraft ready-to-eat ham and cheese loaf products (more info)
Nestle edible Chocolate Chip Cookie Dough tubs with best-by dates of January 28-30, 2023 (more info)
There is also a multi-state outbreak of Listeria linked to deli meats and cheeses, but the specific source has not been identified. If you are pregnant, over the age of 65, or have a condition that weakens your immune system, consider avoiding meat or cheese from deli counters. (more info)
If you have food allergies, you may wish to review these FDA safety alerts for foods with undeclared allergens.