Outbreak Outlook - Aug 26

The first glimmer of influenza-like illness appears on the horizon.

Summer Plans: I am currently on my off-season schedule. During this season:

• For paid subscribers, I combine weekly updates into a single report. These updates are less detailed compared to my winter report.

• Free subscribers receive occasional essays and posts during the summer months, but I won’t be posting as often.

• In the fall, I will return to sending out a full-length, free national version of Outbreak Outlook. Paid subscribers will receive region-specific editions with more local data.

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ILI

Influenza remains at minimal levels nationally, with 1.5% of all outpatient visits for influenza-like illness (ILI) this past week.

At the state level, though, there are some tiny signs of…something.

Several Southern states are reporting small upticks in ILI activity. I could only find detailed data from Georgia, where ILI activity is currently at 3%, below their flu season threshold of 3.5%.

ILI activity in GEORGIA. Source: GDPH

The increase in activity is evident across all age groups under 49, with the most significant rise in the 5-24 age group. Given the timing (Georgia starts school early) and the age distribution, I think the uptick is driven by students returning to school.

ILI activity by age group in GEORGIA. Source: GDPH

Covid-19

While things are starting to improve in parts of the West and South, activity is still increasing in the Northeast and Midwest. In fact, wastewater activity increased nationally this past week and is very high.

Source: CDC

For severe illness, visits to the emergency department (ED) for Covid-19 held roughly steady nationally this past week, accounting for 2.5% of all ED visits. While large swaths of the country reported stable or increasing ED visits, there were also several states that reported declines, located mostly in the West and South.