Outbreak Outlook - June 10

Localized increases of Covid-19, plus updates on other respiratory diseases

Book Announcement: I have a new book coming out in October! It’s called Crisis Averted, and it’s being published by Viking. If you’re interested, you can preorder the book here.

Summer Plans: As summer approaches and data on respiratory diseases dwindles, I am moving to my off-season schedule:

• For paid subscribers, I’ll be combining weekly updates into a single report. Expect these updates to be less detailed until the fall.

• Free subscribers will continue to receive other essays (including one later this week) and posts during the summer months, but I won’t be posting as often.

  • In the fall, I will return to sending out a free national version of Outbreak Outlook.

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ILI

Influenza-like illness remains low in the United States. The percentage of visits to the doctor that were for fever and cough or sore throat declined to 1.8% in the week ending June 1st. This is down from the season's high of 6.9%, which we hit around the new year. 

Young children are more affected by ILI throughout the year, including now. The 0-4 age group is above 6%, and the 5 to 24 age group is around 3%.

ILI by age group. Source: CDC

At the state level, only California and Washington, D.C. have low levels of activity. All other jurisdictions are reporting minimal levels of activity. California has been hovering at 3.3% ILI for several weeks now, but at least activity remains stable. Washington, D.C. is a bit higher at 4.3%, but the district's small population makes numbers somewhat volatile.

ILI in the range of 1-2% is common throughout the summer months, so I expect we'll remain in that range until flu season picks up again.

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COVID-19

On the Covid-19 front, there is a little bit more going on.

Wastewater concentration is continuing to increase, particularly in the Western census region. This seems to be driven almost exclusively by an increase in concentration in California, where levels have been ticking up for several weeks now — more on that below. I checked the other states in the Western region and saw nothing of note. Levels elsewhere continue to be low and steady.