Outbreak Outlook - June 24

Covid-19 activity continues to increase; norovirus activity unseasonably high

Summer Plans: As summer approaches and data on respiratory diseases dwindles, I am moving to my off-season schedule:

• For paid subscribers, I’ll be combining weekly updates into a single report. Expect these updates to be less detailed until the fall.

• Free subscribers will continue to receive occasional essays and posts during the summer months, but I won’t be posting as often.

• In the fall, I will return to sending out a full-length, free national version of Outbreak Outlook. Paid subscribers will receive region-specific editions with more local data..

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ILI

Influenza levels remain minimal across most of the country. Only 1.6% of all outpatient visits were for influenza-like illness, and hospitalizations remain at the near-zero levels we expect this time of year.

The last several weeks, California and Washington, DC have stood out for relatively higher rates of outpatient visits for ILI. California has now declined to levels similar to its neighbors. Things are also finally improving in DC: outpatient ILI declined to 4.1% this past week. It is good to see those places moving in the right direction.

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COVID-19

National Overview: Covid-19 activity remains low at the national level but is still showing signs of increase. We're likely building towards a late summer or early fall wave, although this is somewhat earlier than the “summer wave” we typically see.

Nationwide, wastewater concentration has risen from 'minimal' to 'low' levels, and emergency department visits for Covid-19 have more than doubled since early May, though they still account for less than 1.5% of all ED visits. Hospitalizations remain very low nationally at 1.3 per 100,000 population.