Outbreak Outlook - National - January 29
All-around improvements in flu season, but activity remains elevated
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Respiratory Diseases
ILI
Influenza-like activity is still dropping as we head through the second half of flu season. During the week ending January 20, 4.3% of visits to the doctor were for fever and cough or sore throat, down from 4.7% last week. Flu season will be considered over (but not entirely gone) when activity drops below 2.9%.
Wastewater concentration of influenza A is also dropping, as are emergency department visits for flu, which is further evidence that this season is on its way out.
By region: The South has improved since last month, but most states still remain in the high or very high categories for ILI activity. The Midwest is doing quite well, with most states (except Ohio and North Dakota, which are high) in the low or minimal categories. The Western and Northeastern regions are both somewhere in the middle, with a mix of states in low, medium, and high. I’ll note that California is in the high category, so residents of that state should remain cautious.
By age: If you’re a parent to young children and you haven’t seen relief yet, it’s because ILI is still very high in young kids! Around 10% of visits to the doctor are for ILI in children ages 0-4. This is an improvement from peak season, which we hit around the turn of the new year, but still quite high.
In people ages 5-24, ILI is at 6% and declining -- but I have a big caveat to add. Although outpatient ILI in this age group is falling, emergency department visits for influenza actually increased in this age group over the past two weeks. My guess is it’s a small rebound driven by kids returning to school after winter break. I think it will pass soon, but I’ll keep a close eye out in the weeks ahead.
Outpatient ILI activity in older age groups are all below 4%, and ER visits are falling too.
COVID-19
Covid-19 activity is also declining in most parts of the country, with levels now on par with what we last saw in mid December. We’re through the worst of this winter’s respiratory virus season, but we’re not completely out of the woods yet.
By region: Covid-19 hospitalization admission rates fell across all census regions in the U.S. over the past week as the country seems to be moving past the peak of the winter wave. The steepest decline occurred in the Western region, followed by more modest improvements in the Southern and Northeastern regions. The Midwest also improved, but to a smaller extent. Wastewater concentration of SARS-CoV-2 is also falling in every region. These widespread reductions suggest hospital burdens are easing and Covid-19 is receding from this winter’s highs nationally.
By age: Over the past several weeks, both emergency department visits and hospitalizations have declined across all age groups nationally after peaking around the end of the year. The most significant improvements have occurred among seniors 65+ years old, with admission rates and ER visits falling markedly. Younger age groups have also seen consistent improvements for several weeks now.
RSV
RSV activity is declining, with PCR test positivity at the national level hitting 7%, down from 8% last week. We hit peak week in late November, when test positivity neared 13%. I expect continued improvements through the rest of winter and spring. All regions of the country are improving.
Stomach Bug
Norovirus metrics are still bouncing around, but they are generally increasing as expected this time of year. The test positivity rate across the country is currently at 11%, which is where it has been for about a month. It is always a good idea to stock up on rehydration fluids like Pediatlye at home, just in case someone in the family gets hit with this bug.
Food recalls
The following foods are being recalled because they are contaminated. Please check your cupboards and throw out any of these items:
New
Robitussin Honey CF Max cough syrup products (more info)
Previously reported:
Brightfarm Spinach and Salad Kits (more info)
Charcuterie meats sold by Fratelli Beretta and, newly, Busseto (more info)
Tons of different granola and oatmeal products from Quaker (more info).
If you have food allergies, you may wish to review these FDA safety alerts and USDA alerts for foods with undeclared allergens.
In other news
Cameroon has begun to incorporate the RTS,S malaria vaccine into its national immunization services. It is the first country to do so outside the initial pilot program conducted in Ghana, Kenya, and Malawi. The vaccine rollout covers 42 health districts across Cameroon's 10 regions, targeting children aged six months as of December 31, 2023. The World Health Organization and partners like GAVI and UNICEF have supported Cameroon in preparing for this launch. Cameroon is one of the 11 countries most affected by malaria globally, which reported over 3 million cases and 3,800 deaths in 2021.
Georgia is now among the U.S. states with confirmed measles cases. Georgia health officials have reported two cases of measles in the state. They are family members, and both are unvaccinated. There have been at least 23 cases of confirmed measles in the United States since the beginning of December, according to the CDC. The United Kingdom is also combatting a surge in cases.
Flu season. I meant flu season, not fly. 🥲
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