Outbreak Outlook - National - July 21

Covid-19 activity rising in parts of South and West, including FL, TX and CA

Respiratory Diseases

Influenza-like illness

The summer lull continues. Outpatient visits for ILI are very low at 1.2%, which is lower than they have been this time of year for the past 5 seasons. All states are reporting minimal activity.

Outpatient ILI visits for children 0-4 years of age are at a very low 3.6%, and are at 1.4% for those 5-24. Visits for all other age groups are <1%.

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COVID-19

Activity is increasing in pockets of the South and West, including in several larger states like Texas, California, and Florida. Test positivity has also increased to 4.8%, up from 3.1% last month.

Nevertheless, things remain very quiet in most of the country, with low wastewater activity and low rates of severe illness. Emergency department activity held roughly steady at 0.5% of all ED visits nationally, up from a recent low of 0.3%. Hospitalizations held steady at 1.2 hospitalizations per 100,000 people.

This season is beginning later than I expected. The summer wave typically peaks between late July and early September. It looks like we’ll be on the later side this year. We had a light winter season, which I think sets the stage for a larger summer season because a lot of people do not have recent immunity (i.e., a buildup of the susceptible population). You can see what I mean in the graph of ED visits below, which I have annotated with the approximate peak week. The most recent winter season was much smaller than previous years, and we have had a long period of relative quiet.