Outbreak Outlook - National - Mar 10
Flu season continues to retreat, but activity remains fairly high
Respiratory Diseases
Influenza-like illness
Influenza-like illness (ILI) fell again during the week ending March 1, with 4.9% of visits to the doctor for fever and cough or sore throat. This is a substantial improvement over the previous week's 5.8%.
We are drawing closer to the 3% threshold that marks the end of flu season, though I estimate that is still at least three weeks away.
Every age group saw declines in outpatient ILI, but the younger groups saw the most improvement. In children ages 0 to 4, 12.4% of visits to the doctor were for fever and cough or sore throat. The 5 to 24 year old age group came in at 7.3%. All of the older age groups are below 5%.
Despite these improvements, most of the country is still recording high or even very high levels of activity. The Northeast is currently most affected, with several eastern states reporting very high levels of activity. The Northeast also has the highest percentage of visits to the emergency department (ED) that are for influenza.
The Southern region and eastern portion of the Midwest are also still in the thick of it. The Western region is more mixed, with some states already declining into the moderate category, while others are still reporting high or very high levels of activity.
COVID-19
Covid-19 activity is fairly low right at a national level, though it is still quite high in about a dozen states, primarily in the South. Spring tends to be an off-season for Covid-19. With any luck, activity will remain low until late summer, when we often experience a “wave.”
Wastewater activity nationally is low. At the regional level, activity is moderate in the South and Midwest, and low in the West and Northeast.
Severe illness held steady this past week at low levels, with emergency department visits at a minimal 0.7% of all ED visits, and the hospitalization rate at a fairly low 2.9 hospitalizations per 100,000 people.
RSV & Other Bugs
RSV activity continues to decline, with all four regions of the country seeing low levels of activity, including severe illness. I expect activity to remain low through late summer and into early fall.
Some of the other causes of cold- and flu-like symptoms are elevated right now. Human coronaviruses continue to be at high rates, and human metapneumovirus is at its highest rate yet this season. Adenovirus is picking up a bit, though it remains at low levels.
Norovirus
Norovirus spread continues apace. Rates remain very, very high, with test positivity at 19.8% this past week. The Midwest and Northeast are being hit particularly hard right now.
Food recalls
The following foods are being recalled because they are contaminated. Please check your cupboards and throw out any of these items:
New:
Prepared vegetables sold at Tokyo Central/Marukai stores in California (more info)
Noble Made Garlic Parmesan Wing Sauce (more info)
Wild Coast Raw Chicken Formula [for cats] due to potential contamination with avian influenza H5N1 (more info). This poses a risk to cats who ingest the product, as well as to humans handling the product.
Previously reported:
Lyons ReadyCare and Sysco Imperial Frozen Supplemental Shakes in various flavors (more info)
Menma Ajitsuke Prepared Bamboo Shoots sold under Choshiya brand name (more info)
Canned Tuna sold under Genova, Van Camp’s, H-E-B, and Trader Joe’s brand names (more info)
If you have food allergies, you may wish to review these FDA safety alerts and USDA alerts for foods with undeclared allergens.
In other news
Some housekeeping news: Beginning in April, I'm transitioning to my summer publication schedule since flu, Covid-19, and RSV are winding down. Summer schedule means:
The weekly national edition will be available to paid subscribers only and there will be no regional editions (unless epidemic trends warrant additional coverage).
Free subscribers will continue to receive essays and other posts.
The wintertime schedule (i.e., free national edition and regional editions for paid subscribers) will return in October.
The outbreak in West Texas has grown to 198 reported cases, including 64 cases in children ages 0-4. The vast majority of the cases are in people who are unvaccinated. In addition, four other cases have been reported across the state of Texas, unrelated to the West Texas outbreak.
The outbreak is also percolating on the New Mexico side, with 30 reported cases. New Mexico reported one death in an unvaccinated adult, bringing the total number of deaths associated with this outbreak to two.
Several other states have also reported imported (i.e., travel related) cases in recent weeks. This is shaping up to be another active year for measles.
An outbreak of Ebola Sudan in Uganda has developed into a second cluster of illness, according to CIDRAP. The outbreak totals 14 cases and two deaths, spanning five districts. This is Uganda's sixth outbreak of Ebola Sudan.
Thank you for all you do!
Thank you so much for doing this every week. I hope you have a lovely and healthy Spring.