Outbreak Outlook - National - October 2
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Respiratory diseases
Influenza-like illness
Influenza-like illness has been hovering around 2% for several weeks now. This week, around 2.1% of visits to the doctor’s office were for fever and cough or sore throat. This level is below the threshold of 2.5% that marks the start of flu season, so we’re in a pretty good place for now.
At the national level, the littlest kiddos are still the most heavily affected by ILI. Nearly 7% of visits to the doctor’s office were for ILI symptoms among kids ages 0-4, up from a recent low of 4%. Older kids, ages 5-24, are faring better at 3.2%. Adult age groups are all less than 2%.
Most of the country is categorized as having either “low” or “minimal” levels of ILI activity. There are three exceptions. The District of Columbia, New York City, and North Mariana Islands are all registering as “high.” Of those, only DC has detailed information available (since the flu season hasn't officially started yet). ILI activity in DC is currently at 5%, meaning 5% of visits to the doctor are for fever and cough or sore throat.
Covid-19
The number of new Covid-19 hospitalizations fell this week, which suggests that the summer wave has peaked in most regions of the country. Improvements are most pronounced in the Southern region, which has clearly peaked and is now several weeks into a decline. I expect that the other regions are not far behind. Wastewater concentration has also been either plateauing or falling, depending on the region. I think these indicators are all good news for relief from this summer’s uptick.
Don’t forget that the new Covid-19 vaccine is now widely available, and you can get four free at-home tests from covid.gov/tests. I ordered my tests last week and they have yet to arrive, so delivery might take some time.
RSV
RSV activity continues to pick up, reaching 4.1%, up from 1.3% in mid-July. Test positivity has been increasing for over a month now, and may continue to rise through winter. The virus usually becomes active in the autumn months, ahead of influenza, so it’s more or less on schedule. On the bright side, current activity is below what we saw this time last year during the start of the tripledemic.
This is the first year that RSV shots are available for older adults, infants, and pregnant women, so I hope the availability of these products helps reduce severe illness among these vulnerable groups.
Others
All the other respiratory virus that I keep an eye on — seasonal coronavirus, human metapneumovirus, parainfluenza virus, and adenovirus —look good. Rhinovirus/enterovirus, one cause of the common cold, is high though, so expect stuffy noses.
Stomach bugs
Norovirus
Norovirus activity has been fluctuating for several weeks now, with a few spikes during the summer months. Recent test positivity stands at around 6% at the national level, with a significant portion of this increase attributed to heightened activity in the Midwest. Norovirus is usually most active through the winter months, but does not peak until early spring.
Food recalls
The following foods are being recalled because they are contaminated. Please check your cupboards and throw out any of these items:
New this week:
Whole cantaloupes sold by Eagle Produce (more info)
Not Fried Chicken sold by Life Raft Treats (more info)
Previously reported:
Hillshire Brands smoked sausage (more info)
Banquet Chicken Strips Meal (more info)
Frozen corn and mixed vegetables from Food Lion and Kroger (more info)
Dehumidifiers, dozens of models sold by major retailers, including Home Depot, Lowe’s, and Walmart. The recalled units were manufactured between 2011 and 2014 (more info — check this list carefully, it’s extensive)
If you have food allergies, you may wish to review these FDA safety alerts and USDA alerts for foods with undeclared allergens.
In Other News
The Finland Food Authority has reported another H5N1 avian flu outbreak in a mink facility, marking the 27th such incident since mid-July 2023. In response, Finland has mandated culling at all affected farms. Influenza outbreaks in mink farms are especially concerning because mink could potentially serve as mixing vessels for the virus to become better adapted to spreading in mammals. Denmark and Israel have noted new H5N1 outbreaks, but in birds. The European Food Safety Authority has urged the poultry industry to improve biosecurity measures in preparation for the upcoming fall bird migration season.
Afghanistan has reported six polio cases so far this year, all in the Nangarhar province, with a new case recently identified in the Khogyani district. This marks a significant increase from the two cases reported in 2022. In response, the Ministry of Public Health launched a nationwide polio vaccination program, aiming to vaccinate around 11 million children as part of a global eradication initiative. The recent surge in cases underscores the challenges faced in the final stages of polio eradication.
May I mention -- Whole Foods Organic Chicken Broth and Beef Broth have also been recalled. My parents and I found out the hard way that the chicken broth was contaminated. :-( If you've got the stuff, get rid of it pronto!
Re: COVID Tests
The government website notes that deliveries don't start until October 2.