Outbreak Outlook - South - Jan 27

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Respiratory Diseases

ILI

As I wrote in the National edition, the Trump administration’s pause on health communications interrupted flu data, specifically outpatient influenza-like illness. To close the gap, I visited all 50 websites of the state health departments, and gathered what I could. You’ll see those data points included in my report below.

At the national level, flu defied my expectations by re-surging after two consecutive weeks of improvement. Unfortunately, the Southern region is definitely affected by this trend. The region has a east-to-west gradient of activity, with the highest levels of flu along the Atlantic coast and gradually diminishing westward. There are also sharp increases in ED visits across multiple states, particularly in South Carolina and the Gulf Coast.

South Carolina and Georgia are seeing big increases, with South Carolina reporting the region's highest numbers (ED visits 8.4%, up sharply from 4.7%; ILI outpatient visits 10.8%, up from 7.6%). Georgia shows elevated activity with ED visits at 5.4% (up from 4.1%), hospitalizations at 6.9 per 100,000 (down from 7.8), and ILI outpatient visits at 7.3% (up from 6.6%).

Alabama and Mississippi show moderately high activity, with Alabama's ED visits at 5.4% (down from 5.6%) and Mississippi reporting ED visits at 5.9% (up from 4.4%).

In the Mid-Atlantic, Maryland leads this group with hospitalizations at 6.3 per 100,000 (down from 8.2), ED visits at 4.5% (up from 3.7%), and ILI visits at 4.1%. Virginia reports ED visits at 4.2% (up from 3.7%), while Delaware shows ED visits at 5.1% (up from 4.5%, ILI 2.4%). The District of Columbia maintains lower ED visits at 3.7% (up from 3.2%).

Florida shows ED visits at 6.1% (up from 4.8%) with ILI visits at 6.5% (up from 5.9%). Texas reports higher ED visits at 6.5% (up from 4.9%), while Louisiana records ED visits at 5.0% (up from 4.1%).

North Carolina shows high ED visits at 7.1% (up from 5.6%) but declining hospitalizations at 4.5 per 100,000 (down from 9.0). Tennessee maintains moderate levels with ED visits at 4.3% (down from 4.5%), hospitalizations at 4.8 per 100,000 (down from 5.3), and ILI visits at 7.4%.

Kentucky reports lower ED visits at 3.7% (down from 4.7%), while West Virginia shows the region's lowest activity with ED visits at 2.1% (down from 3.1%, ILI 1.8%).

Oklahoma shows a concerning spike in ED visits to 6.1% (up from 4.0%) with ILI visits at 3.8%, while Arkansas maintains lower but increasing ED visits at 3.6% (up from 2.7%) and ILI visits at 4.6%.

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COVID-19