Really love your work and value your expertise! I'm still wondering if there is any data evidence of China suppressing non-Covid respiratory illness in 2021 and 2022? I've heard this a lot recently, but haven't seen data supporting it. If you have data showing this it would be very helpful, because the data I can find in my limited resources all point to China not suppressing non-Covid respiratory illness in 2021 and 2022 the way we did in the US.
Obviously our Covid measures in the US suppressed RSV and influenza, but China's approach was so different, I'm not sure we can assume the same about them? The assumption that they are repaying 3 years of immunity debt is not consistent with the data below.
My observation was their zero Covid approach was strict national lockdowns through early and mid 2020, followed by strict border controls and harsh month long regional draconian lockdowns in areas of small Covid outbreaks when positives occurred. However, it seems their population was not locked in their homes for 3 years and was actually quite open outside the harsh lockdowns during regional outbreaks?
(Note: As a member of a "free" society I'm not advocating for their approach, but it seems important to differentiate with this question of why this increased illness is occurring)
This is important, because if they had RSV and flu seasons in those years, the hypothesis of the current outbreak in China being due to immunity debt doesn't make sense?
The study I linked first suggests RSV was not suppressed and other two links below seem to show influenza was not suppressed in 2021 and 2022.
The first sentence of the conclusions in the abstract of the second link says "Influenza activity increased in the mainland of China in 2021, and caused flu season in the winter of 2021–2022." The third link shows there was more influenza in 2021 than there was in 2015, 2016, 2017 and was close to reaching 2018 levels.
If the current outbreak in China is happening in the absence of their population having an immunity debt to respiratory illnesses, it changes the discussion about the cause of the increase in pneumonia.
Definitely value your opinion and would love to hear your thoughts!
Looks as though there are strong indications that RSV vaccine ought to be made more available and more promoted. Proactive rather than reactive care is to be strongly emphasized.
Thanks, as usual, for the update. re: China's flare, I recall reading in the last 2-3 days that China shared with WHO that the majority of the pneumonia cases were Mycoplasma, so it's not really undiagnosed. Similarly, the Ohio "white lung" cases appear to be the same genus but are NOT related to the Chinese outbreak.
The link to the news article re: COVID tests in schools is to an article re: syphilis. Would it be possible to get the other article? I am a school nurse and am interested in having access to these. Thank you for sharing your knowledge. I frequently reference your posts.
Thank you for such helpful health data info. A friend in the health policy field led me to your newsletter. For that I am grateful!
Really love your work and value your expertise! I'm still wondering if there is any data evidence of China suppressing non-Covid respiratory illness in 2021 and 2022? I've heard this a lot recently, but haven't seen data supporting it. If you have data showing this it would be very helpful, because the data I can find in my limited resources all point to China not suppressing non-Covid respiratory illness in 2021 and 2022 the way we did in the US.
Obviously our Covid measures in the US suppressed RSV and influenza, but China's approach was so different, I'm not sure we can assume the same about them? The assumption that they are repaying 3 years of immunity debt is not consistent with the data below.
My observation was their zero Covid approach was strict national lockdowns through early and mid 2020, followed by strict border controls and harsh month long regional draconian lockdowns in areas of small Covid outbreaks when positives occurred. However, it seems their population was not locked in their homes for 3 years and was actually quite open outside the harsh lockdowns during regional outbreaks?
(Note: As a member of a "free" society I'm not advocating for their approach, but it seems important to differentiate with this question of why this increased illness is occurring)
This is important, because if they had RSV and flu seasons in those years, the hypothesis of the current outbreak in China being due to immunity debt doesn't make sense?
The study I linked first suggests RSV was not suppressed and other two links below seem to show influenza was not suppressed in 2021 and 2022.
The first sentence of the conclusions in the abstract of the second link says "Influenza activity increased in the mainland of China in 2021, and caused flu season in the winter of 2021–2022." The third link shows there was more influenza in 2021 than there was in 2015, 2016, 2017 and was close to reaching 2018 levels.
If the current outbreak in China is happening in the absence of their population having an immunity debt to respiratory illnesses, it changes the discussion about the cause of the increase in pneumonia.
Definitely value your opinion and would love to hear your thoughts!
https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmicb.2022.938372/full
https://idpjournal.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s40249-022-01002-x
https://www.statista.com/statistics/861143/influenza-incidence-rate-in-china/#:~:text=In%202021%2C%20approximately%2047.4%20out,from%20the%20peak%20in%202019.
Looks as though there are strong indications that RSV vaccine ought to be made more available and more promoted. Proactive rather than reactive care is to be strongly emphasized.
This sounds so level-headed! Thank you.
Thanks, as usual, for the update. re: China's flare, I recall reading in the last 2-3 days that China shared with WHO that the majority of the pneumonia cases were Mycoplasma, so it's not really undiagnosed. Similarly, the Ohio "white lung" cases appear to be the same genus but are NOT related to the Chinese outbreak.
Good Morning,
The link to the news article re: COVID tests in schools is to an article re: syphilis. Would it be possible to get the other article? I am a school nurse and am interested in having access to these. Thank you for sharing your knowledge. I frequently reference your posts.
Oops, sorry about that. I will update the text. Here is the correct link: https://www.ed.gov/coronavirus/testing-supply-program-dcl