16 Comments
User's avatar
Encephalogirl's avatar

I think it’s important to point out that though the C19 hospitalizations are lower this year compared to last, wastewater is not. As a predictor for community transmission, wastewater should be noted, as currently being the second highest wave.

Expand full comment
GERRY CREAGER's avatar

Hospitalizations are likely down due to, among other things, derived immunity from infection (even if asymptomatic) and prior immunization. Problem is, what is the true incidence of infection when we no longer have a testing and reporting infrastructure? I remain concerned about the potential impact of long-COVID, and successive infections roll the dice every time for someone to become so affected. Yes, even with asymptomatic infection.

Also, we now have people dismissing influenza-like symptoms (the public tends to think there's no more COVID, really) and muscle through the illness, spreading along the way. I'm seriously concerned that later in this surge we'll see a hospitalization spike.

Expand full comment
KB's  FROM THE PETRI DISH's avatar

I would like to add antivirals and better booster, despite dismal rates.

Expand full comment
GERRY CREAGER's avatar

New evidence of benefit in long-COVID for remdesivir suggests it might be effective against current strains (but more work is needed). And please define "bettter booster". What we've got is fulfilling the goals of decreased serious illness, hospitalizations and deaths. Our initial results with the mRNA vaccines was great but not ever sustainable unless/until we really achieve a pan-coronavirus vaccine.

Expand full comment
KB's  FROM THE PETRI DISH's avatar

Let me rephrase that, better matched booster. McCormick recently posted a note how boosters are decreasing the rate of PASC. Agree with pan-coronavirus vaccine but getting there is a steep curve. I've been following the trials of pan-influenza vaccines, which will hopefully help in the next pandemic. I am inclined to think influenza will be the next pandemic.

Expand full comment
GERRY CREAGER's avatar

We thought influenza was the most likely culprit for THIS pandemic until we saw it really was coronavirus. All the pre-pandemic planning was predicated on influenza.

Expand full comment
KB's  FROM THE PETRI DISH's avatar

There were some good reasons for this line of planning. We had a series of influenza outbreak in past 50 years. However, SARS (CoV-1) and MERS(CoV) should have been a bit of a wake up call, in a sense. It did prepare us for SAR-CoV-2 as corona vaccine research began in earnest but funding/virus went away. It pave the way for the development of SARS vaccines. As Dr. Peter Hotez said, development of the vaccine was 17 years in the making.

I guess we should prepare for anything as nature likes to throw a knuckleball.

Expand full comment
Kirk Steele's avatar

Please cite sources for follow on study by others.

Expand full comment
Encephalogirl's avatar

Wastewater data can be viewed on the biobot or CDC websites.

A good weekly analysis of the data can be found here:

https://www.pmc19.com/data/PMC_Report_Dec25_2023.pdf

Expand full comment
Kirk Steele's avatar

Okay, just "final exam crunch" scanned it. A summation. Makes sense, but......

Got links to the raw study, methodology, reduction methods, etc discussionS.

How did they get these data sets? I'm not dismissing anything. I am seriously curious how they are mitigating bias and methodologies cal safeguards. I live in a world full of red baseball caps.

I NEED TO KNOW DOWN TO THE BRASS TACKS?

Expand full comment
Kirk Steele's avatar

Pardon my naiveté. Sometimes my physical/engineering science self needs to be lead by the nose ring to the water before I can drink. WTF is "the Biobot?" I mean, other than a Russian obscene euphemism for Sacrificial Radioactive Contamination Cleaners...

IOW, where do I find those two listings. Pleading for a little bit of the "teach me to fish" portion of the answer.

Expand full comment
Kirk Steele's avatar

Much as gracias mi Amiga!

Expand full comment
Kirk Steele's avatar

Just went to your source citations, thanks for making those easy btw, and noticed howuch LESS influenza there was in '20.

If we're not stirring the pot, we're not making snot. People are some disease spreading idiots. We all stayed home for a year and Flu got cut in half!!!

Expand full comment
GERRY CREAGER's avatar

A bunch of us noted that at the time, and were amazed. And happy. If we'd superimposed a harsh flu season on top of that first COVID year, the death toll would have been higher because we were already out of beds in most places.

Expand full comment